May 13, 2025

Introduction 

On April 15, 2025, the White House issued an executive order (E.O.) 14241 “Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production” aimed at strengthening the United States’ supply of critical minerals and addressing associated national security concerns. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), critical minerals encompass “any non-fuel mineral, element, substance, or material that the Secretary of Energy determines: (i) has a high risk of supply chain disruption; and (ii) serves an essential function in one or more energy technologies, including technologies that produce, transmit, store, and conserve energy.” This executive action mandates the development of a comprehensive report to identify vulnerabilities within critical mineral supply chains and to provide strategic recommendations for enhancing sustainable domestic production.

Although extraction of natural resources in general has been the subject of significant debate in recent years, the E.O. is expected to streamline permitting procedures specific to minerals, allowing mining companies to initiate operations more quickly and efficiently.

This study examines the economic impacts of mineral mining and alternative energy production in Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming, driven by the implementation of Executive Order 14241. The order, aimed at securing a stable domestic supply of critical minerals and accelerating the transition to clean energy, has catalyzed renewed interest in resource-rich regions of the American West. These three states, endowed with vast mineral reserves and renewable energy potential, stand at the forefront of this shift.

By analyzing recent and proposed projects—including exploration initiatives like Colorado’s La Plata Project—this report explores how streamlined permitting processes, federal investment, and market demand are shaping economic development, workforce growth, and infrastructure planning in the region.

Key Findings

·         Executive Order 14241 is expected to drive economic growth and enhance national prosperity by strengthening the reliability and resilience of critical mineral supply chains.

·         In Arizona, CSI’s econometric model finds that a $1 increase in the global price of copper per pound corresponds to an $11 rise in average weekly wages for copper producing counties at the county level.

·         By 2040, a single mineral mining operation in Colorado’s southwestern Uravan Mineral Belt would lead to:

·         A 5,390 increase in Colorado’s population;

·         Add an estimated 3,092 increase in the state’s labor force; and

·         Over a $1.3 billion increase in Colorado’s GDP.

·         Based on projected job growth from 10 mineral mining operations in Colorado, CSI’s econometric model estimates that one mine in this region could generate approximately 37,743 new jobs statewide in 2040—including direct, indirect, and induced employment.

·         CSI quantified the economic impact of nuclear production ramp up in Colorado spurred by House Bill 25-1040. By 2040, nuclear production is expected to:

·         Boost Colorado’s population by approximately 54,021;

·         Increase the labor force by roughly 30,096; and

·         Drive a $7.8 billion increase in statewide GDP.

·         E.O. 14241 is expected to accelerate the development of Wyoming’s rare earth element (REE) deposits, advancing US efforts toward mineral independence from China.

·         Wyoming’s status as the nation’s leading wind energy producer—coupled with its proximity to Denver’s aerospace and national defense sectors—creates a strategic opportunity to strengthen and expand a domestic mineral-to-material supply chain.

Arizona

Executive Order 14241 improves permitting opportunities for mineral projects across the United States. Arizona, which holds abundant copper deposits—a material critical to the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and data center infrastructure—is already seeing results. The Resolution Copper Project has been granted expedited permitting status under FAST-41. This proposed underground mine, located 5,000 to 7,000 feet (1,500 to 2,130 meters) below the surface, boasts an average copper grade of 1.5%. For context, any deposit over 100 meters deep with more than 1% copper equivalent is considered high-grade. Once operational, the mine is projected to be the largest in North America, with the potential to supply up to 25% of the annual U.S. copper demand.

As one of the five “C’s” (i.e., copper, cattle, cotton, citrus, and climate) deemed significant to the cultural and economic development of the state, Arizona proudly leads the U.S. in copper production—producing 71% of the nation’s copper.[i][ii] Six primary counties produce the majority of Arizona’s copper, including Greenlee, Graham, Pima, Yavapai, Gila, and Pinal.

Copper-related employment provides substantial benefits to Arizona’s broader economy. The following section presents CSI’s modeling results, which indicate that even marginal increases in copper production lead to measurable community-wide wage gains.

Digging Deeper: How Copper Expansion Enriches Arizona Communities

This section employs econometric modeling to analyze the impact of copper mining on community income in Arizona, leveraging the state’s substantial production and abundant data. The analysis combines county-level average wage data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) with global copper spot prices from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), covering the period from 2010 to 2023.

Equation 1 shows the estimating model CSI generated for assessing county-wide financial gains across all sectors in copper producing counties in the state. The regression model estimates the total appreciation in wages per change in the global price of copper.[iii] Global spot prices of copper are exogenous to local economic activity, making an argument that the model’s results are robust.  

Wct = alpha + B1(county x copper)ct + pt + Ect          (1)

The regression model estimates the total appreciation in wages per change in the global price of copper where Wct is equal to average wages for all labor force participants in county c during year t; and the coefficient linked to the Beta1 represents a proxy for copper mining revenue in Arizona county c during year t.[iv] This approach accounts for year fixed effects to control for factors that change over time but are common to all observations in a given year. This is represented by pt in Equation 1. Ect  represents the error term. In the regression equation, the error term (often denoted by ε or u) reflects the unobserved factors that influence the dependent variable. It includes omitted variables, measurement errors, and inherent randomness in the relationship between the variables. Statistically, it is assumed to have a mean of zero and to be uncorrelated with the independent variables, under the classical linear regression assumptions.

Regression results indicate that a $1 increase in the global price of copper per pound corresponds to an $11 rise in average weekly wages in copper-producing counties. Given the QCEW-reported average private-sector wage of $778 per week, this reflects a 1.5% increase in community income. This coefficient is associated with a p-value of 95% or greater, meaning that its significance is highly robust. Table 1.A in Appendix A of this study reports the STATA regression results.

In summary, Executive Order 14241 sets a pro-growth agenda for Arizona, stimulating economic activity by boosting demand for copper and related industries.

Colorado

Stage I: Colorado’s Mineral Exploration and High-skilled Employees Benefit Directly from the Mining Executive Order through Improved Review Processes Increased Consulting Services

There are a number of proposed projects and mineral interests in Colorado that could immediately benefit from expedited permitting processes or prioritized land management for mining under E.O. 14241. These opportunities could be further enhanced by legislative permitting reforms currently under consideration in the U.S. Senate and House Natural Resource Committees. Together, these policy efforts have the potential to accelerate project timelines, attract private investment, and strengthen domestic supply chains for critical minerals.

The state also hosts several mature mining operations, including Climax, Henderson, and Cripple Creek, which have the potential to pursue future expansion into the critical minerals market. However, such developments are likely to occur on a longer timeline. Economic benefits of mining expansions in Colorado are explored in detail in the following section.

An immediate impact on the Colorado economy would also be felt through the large number of mining consulting and finance firms located in Colorado. SRK consulting has their US practice based in Denver along with FTI Consulting locating their US mining lead in Denver. Major consulting firms like Stantec and WSP also maintain a strong presence in Denver, reinforcing the city’s role as an anchor for engineering, infrastructure, and energy development.

Additionally, Denver serves as a hub for mining finance, with firms like Resource Capital Funds and Orion Resource Partners making significant investments from their metro offices. Finally, Colorado’s capital is home to mining companies that can directly benefit from the improved permitting process such as Newmont, Anglo Gold Ashanti, SSR Resources, and Rare Element Resources.  

The following section focuses on “stage two” of the E.O., using econometric modeling to analyze the economic benefits of mining minerals in Colorado’s Uravan Mineral Belt over the coming years. The results reveal significant, statewide opportunities driven by the state’s abundant mineral resources.

Stage II. From Ore to Opportunity: Economic Impacts of Mining in the Uravan Mineral Belt

Located in southwestern Colorado, the Uravan Mineral Belt—known for its ore deposits—spans a 70 by 30 geological mile zone across Mesa, Montrose, and San Miguel counties (as well as eastern Utah).[v] This area is notably rich in uranium—essential for nuclear energy production—and vanadium, a critical mineral increasingly used in batteries and energy storage technologies.[vi] Currently, there is considerable debate surrounding mining in the Uravan Mineral Belt. While some stakeholders advocate for rapidly advancing extraction efforts to capitalize on the region’s mineral wealth, environmental groups and certain local communities in the San Miguel Mountains express strong concerns about the potential ecological and social impacts.[vii] The new Executive Order may help overcome opposition to initiating mining operations in the region by streamlining regulatory processes and reframing the narrative around strategic resource development.

One of the key questions driving this research is how the statewide economy would benefit from the development of an additional mine dedicated to extracting critical minerals. To explore this, CSI utilized a REMI model to forecast economic effects over time, assuming a new mining operation begins in 2026 with projections extending through 2040. The baseline scenario draws from NioCorp’s Critical Minerals Security Elk Creek Project in Nebraska, which is expected to generate approximately 436 permanent high-tech jobs and 1,000 temporary positions related to construction and infrastructure.[viii] We assume that each new large-scale critical mineral mining operation in the Uravan Mineral Belt would generate comparable job growth, and this employment level was used as a direct input in the model. The REMI variable for this was ”Mining (Excluding Oil and Gas).”

Table 1 presents projected economic impacts of a single additional mining operation in Southwestern Colorado, assuming operations commence in 2026. Overall, the findings suggest that a new mining project in this region would generate substantial economic benefits, including job creation, increased regional income, and broader contributions to statewide economic growth.

Source: CSI Research and Modeling, 2025.

Table 1

The results in Table 1 indicate that, by 2040, a single mineral mining operation in Colorado’s Uravan Mineral Belt would lead to:

·         A increase in the state’s population by 5,390. This is especially important given the downward trends in in-migration and birth rates, alongside broader population aging patterns in Colorado;[ix]

·         An increase of 3,092 growth in labor force statewide; and

·         Over a $1.3 increase in the statewide GDP.

Based on projected job growth from a mineral mining operation, our econometric model estimates that 10 mines in this region could generate approximately 37,743 new jobs statewide by 2040—including direct, indirect, and induced employment. Figure 1 below illustrates the projected annual increase in new jobs resulting from one local extraction establishment.  

Figure 1

Projected economic output—measuring the total value of goods and services produced statewide—closely mirrors job growth trends (Figure 1), peaking in 2030 at $1.63 billion. Personal income gains steadily climb year-over-year, adding nearly $1.1 billion by the end of the forecast period (Figure 2).

Forecasted job creation resulting from a new mining operation in the region is projected to peak in 2029, followed by a gradual, but positive, stabilization around 2036. The gain in private-sector jobs is especially significant, given Colorado lost nearly 15,000 non-farm jobs over the past year, according to Common Sense Institute’s March 2025 job report.  

Figure 2