February 14, 2023
Experts:
2023 Local Elections
In 2023, Coloradans will have municipal elections in our most populated cities. To inform these debates CSI will produce reports on the most pressing issues facing Colorado cities: crime, housing, and homelessness for Fort Collins, Denver, Grand Junction, Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Aurora.
Teams & Fellows Statement
CSI is committed to independent, in-depth research that examines the impacts of policies, initiatives, and proposed laws so that Coloradans and Arizonans are educated and informed on issues impacting their lives. CSI’s commitment to institutional independence is rooted in the individual independence of our researchers, economists, and fellows. At the core of CSI’s mission is a belief in the power of the free enterprise system. Our work explores ideas that protect and promote jobs and the economy, and the CSI team and fellows take part in this pursuit with academic freedom. Our team’s work is driven by data-driven research and evidence. The views and opinions of fellows do not reflect institutional views of CSI. CSI operates independently of any political party and does not take positions.
Introduction and Key Findings
This report looks at the current state of crime in Denver through the lens of publicly available data on the level of crime and crime rates. We used data on neighborhoods made available by the Denver Police Department to study crime at the individual neighborhood level and at the City Council District level.
Crime rates in Denver continue to top pre-pandemic levels. In 2022, Denver’s average monthly crime rate was
43% higher
than in 2019, and
75% higher
than in 2008. The average monthly crime rate for motor vehicle theft is 172 incidents per 100,000 residents,
an increase of 293%
compared to 2014, the year that the state passed statutory reductions to motor vehicle penalties.
Compared to other cities in the U.S. with populations over 100,000, Denver ranks third in motor vehicle theft crime rate and sixth in property crime rates, and 10th in rape crime rates.
Relative to other major Colorado cities, Denver is ranked first in motor vehicle thefts and first in property crime.
Concurrent with Denver’s rising crime rates, one would expect a corresponding rise in arrests, convictions, and incarceration for the sake of public safety and justice for victims. Further analysis is warranted to determine how the criminal justice system is responding. The findings in this report show that Denver faces a growing crime problem and addressing it should be a top priority.
Report Key Findings
Denver ranks in the top 10 U.S. cities for crime
- Denver ranks in the top 10 U.S. cities for crime, including: 3rd motor vehicle theft; 6th property crime rate; 10th rape crime rate.
- Approximately 14,980 vehicles were stolen in Denver in 2022. That is equal to nearly every car being stolen from all parking lots surrounding Empower Field during 3 Broncos home games.
While all districts in Denver face challenges, crime is overwhelming in District 9
- The number of crime incidences in District 9 (15,987) is 91% higher than the second worst district and more than double the level in the 8 other districts.
- District 9 has a crime rate twice the average for all districts.
- District 9 has 9.09% of the population in Denver yet has 20.4% of all incidents in 2022. This equates to roughly 44 incidents (nearly 50) per day in District 9.
Neighborhoods to Watch
- In 2022, District 9 neighborhoods, including CBD, Five Points, and Union Station, occupied 3 of the top 5 worst neighborhoods by number of crimes.
- The worst neighborhood by the number of crimes, was 4,549 in Five Points.
- In District 9, incidents of crime have increased nearly 40% from 11,468 in 2018 to 15,987 in 2022.
- The neighborhood with the least number of crimes and ranked best in Denver is Wellshire.
- District 2 had the lowest number of incidents, including Harvey Park, Bear Valley, and Marston.
Average Monthly Crimes Rates in Denver
The data in this section comes from Colorado Crime Statistics. Figure 1 shows the evolution of the average monthly crime rate in Denver and Colorado since 2008. The average monthly crime rate in Denver has risen by 75% from 5.14 per 1,000 residents in 2018 to 9.01 in 2022. As of 2022, Denver’s crime rate is 58% higher than the Colorado average. Historically, Denver’s crime rate has been only about 28% higher than the state average.
Figure 1 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 Residents in Denver and Colorado
Table 1
shows the average monthly crime rate in 2014, 2018, and 2022, as well as change from 2014 to 2018 and 2014 to 2018 by major crime categories. Crimes against persons rose 22.3% from 2018 to 2022, a seven-fold increase over the period 2014 to 2018. Crimes against property rose 59.5% from 2018 to 2022, a nine-fold increase over the period 2014 to 2018. Crimes against society decreased 10% from 2018 to 2022, after increasing 34% from 2014 to 2018.
Some of the larger increases occurred in aggravated assault, increasing 60.2% from 2018 to 2022, motor vehicle theft rose 176% from 2018 to 2022, more than four times the change from 2014 to 2018.
| Table 1 – Denver Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 residents | |||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | ||||
| Average Monthly Crime Rate | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014-2018 | 2018-2022 |
| Crimes against Person | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.59 | 3.2% | 22.3% |
| Crimes against Property | 3.97 | 4.23 | 6.75 | 6.6% | 59.5% |
| Crimes against Society | 0.57 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 34.0% | -10.0% |
| Sexual Assault | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 26.3% | -5.2% |
| Murder | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 266.7% | 0.0% |
| Robbery | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 3.0% | 4.1% |
| Aggravated Assault | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.62 | 25.5% | 60.2% |
| Arson | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -23.8% | 62.5% |
| Burglary | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.58 | -19.0% | 24.0% |
| Larceny | 2.45 | 2.51 | 3.46 | 2.3% | 38.1% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicles | 0.49 | 0.61 | 0.96 | 26.2% | 57.2% |
| Auto Theft | 0.44 | 0.62 | 1.72 | 42.1% | 176.0% |
| Total | 5.79 | 6.29 | 9.02 | 8.5% | 43.5% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Statistics | |||||
Figure 2 shows the evolution of average monthly crimes against a person for Denver relative to Colorado. Denver’s average monthly crime for crimes against a person has consistently been higher than Colorado and is continuing to diverge away from Colorado at a higher rate in each year since 2012.
Figure 2 – Crimes Against Persons: Average Monthly Crime Rates
Figure 3 shows the evolution of average monthly crimes against property relative to Colorado. Denver’s average monthly crime rate against property has been consistently higher than Colorado’s average and tracks fairly close.
Figure 3 – Crimes Against Property: Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 in Denver and Colorado
Figure 4 shows the average monthly crime rate against society relative to Colorado. Denver’s average monthly crime rate against society does not appear to be positively correlated with Colorado’s.
Figure 4 – Crimes Against Society: Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 in Denver and Colorado
Figure 5 shows Denver’s average monthly crime rate for crimes against persons, property, society, and total from 2008 to 2022. Clearly, the large increase in crimes against property account for the majority of the change in the total average monthly crime rate.
Figure 5 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 in Denver
Crime in Denver Relative to Other Large U.S. Cities
Using the latest report from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) for the third quarter of 2022, CSI converted the number of crimes to crime rates based on population for each reporting city. 168 cities reported to the UCR in Q3 2021 and 188 reported in Q3 2022. Highlighted in Table 2 is Denver’s rankings across several major crime categories. Denver ranks 3rd in motor vehicle thefts in the nation and ranks 6th for property crime in 2021 and 2022 out of nationwide surveyed cities.
Using the latest report from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) for the third quarter of 2022, CSI converted the number of crimes to crime rates based on population for each reporting city. 168 cities reported to the UCR in Q3 2021 and 188 reported in Q3 2022. Highlighted in Table 2 is Denver’s rankings across several major crime categories. Denver ranks 3rd in motor vehicle thefts in the nation and ranks 6th for property crime in 2021 and 2022 out of nationwide surveyed cities.
| Table 2 – 2021 and 2022 FBI 3rd Quarter Denver Crime Rates Ranked among Reporting Cities[i] | ||||||||||||
| Year | Violent Crime | Murder | Rape | Robbery | Aggravated Assault | Property Crime | Burglary | Larceny/Theft | Motor Vehicle Theft | Arson | ||
| Denver | 2021 | 34 | 38 | 20 | 28 | 36 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 42 | |
| 2022 | 25 | 46 | 10 | 29 | 29 | 6 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 36 | ||
| Quarterly Uniform Crime Report data for the nation are derived from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) reports voluntarily submitted to the FBI. The FBI Quarterly Uniform Crime Report data release for Quarter 3, January – September 2022, was made available on November 28, 2022. This report is based on data received from 12,104 of 18,964 law enforcement agencies in the country. The Quarter 3 release presents the number of violent and property crime offenses known to law enforcement for agencies with resident populations of 100,000 or more that also provided data from the previous year. | ||||||||||||
Crime in Denver City Council Districts
Denver City Council Districts are defined geographically so that each of the eleven districts has approximately an equal population. As such, some neighborhoods or parts of a neighborhood can and do shift districts. In this study, the neighborhood designations are kept constant for all years so that the number of incidents and crime rates are comparable. Table 3 shows the annual crime rate for all districts in Denver based on data from Colorado Crime Statistics. Total crime rates increased 8.6% from 2014 to 2018, and increased 43.5% from 2018 to 2022, more than a five-fold increase.
| Table 3 – Change in Annual Crime Rates, Denver – Districts 1-11 | |||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | ||||
| Offense Category | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014-2018 | 2018-2022 |
| Crimes against Person | 15.1 | 15.6 | 19.08 | 3.2% | 22.5% |
| Crimes against Property | 47.6 | 50.8 | 80.95 | 6.6% | 59.5% |
| Crimes against Society | 6.77 | 9.1 | 8.18 | 34.4% | -10.1% |
| Drug/Narcotics Violations | 4.08 | 5.26 | 2.93 | 28.9% | -44.3% |
| Non-consensual Sex Offenses | 1.38 | 1.72 | 1.65 | 24.6% | -4.1% |
| Murder | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Aggravated Assault | 3.68 | 4.6 | 7.38 | 25.0% | 60.4% |
| Non-consensual Sex Offenses | 1.38 | 1.72 | 1.65 | 24.6% | -4.1% |
| Robbery | 1.65 | 1.69 | 1.76 | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| Burglary/Breaking & Entering | 6.9 | 5.59 | 6.92 | -19.0% | 23.8% |
| Arson | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.26 | -23.8% | 62.5% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicles | 5.84 | 7.36 | 11.58 | 26.0% | 57.3% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 5.24 | 7.47 | 20.58 | 42.6% | 175.5% |
| Total | 69.5 | 75.4 | 108.2 | 8.6% | 43.5% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Statistics | |||||
In Table 4, crime rates for categories of crime collected by the Denver Police Department are shown. These are the categories of crime that are used to evaluate trends in crime in each district and to compare Denver’s eleven City Council Districts to one another. Based on this data, total crime rate decreased by 7.4% from 2014 – 2018, but then reversed course by rising 31.5% from 2018 to 2022.
| Table 4 – Change in Annual Crime Rates, Denver – Districts 1 -11 | |||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | ||||
| Offense Category | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014 -2018 | 2018 -2022 |
| Public Disorder | 15.43 | 10.82 | 16.65 | -29.9% | 53.9% |
| Drug/Alcohol | 9.29 | 8.20 | 4.39 | -11.7% | -46.5% |
| Sexual Assault | 0.97 | 1.13 | 0.97 | 16.2% | -14.1% |
| Other Crimes against Persons | 6.73 | 4.49 | 5.54 | -33.4% | 23.5% |
| All Other Crimes | 14.23 | 12.45 | 10.48 | -12.5% | -15.8% |
| White-collar Crime | 1.63 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 7.9% | -16.5% |
| Murder | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 71.4% | 42.1% |
| Robbery | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.71 | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| Aggravated Assault | 2.80 | 3.17 | 4.98 | 13.1% | 57.4% |
| Arson | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.24 | -20.4% | 53.2% |
| Burglary | 6.89 | 5.61 | 6.80 | -18.5% | 21.2% |
| Larceny | 14.13 | 12.43 | 13.58 | -12.0% | 9.2% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicle | 7.69 | 11.20 | 18.86 | 45.6% | 68.4% |
| Auto Theft | 5.30 | 7.38 | 20.09 | 39.3% | 172.3% |
| Total | 88.21 | 82.23 | 107.05 | -7.4% | 31.5% |
| Source: Denver Police Department Open Data Catalog | |||||
District Comparison of Number of Incidents
Total crime incidents have continued to increase dramatically in all districts apart from District 2. Figure 6 shows the situation is most dire in District 9, where the number of incidents has risen from 11,468 in 2018 to 15,987 in 2022, a 38.4% increase.
Figure 6 – Incidents of Crime in Denver’s City Council Districts
Table 5 shows the number of incidents in each Denver City Council District and ranks them where 1 is the worst and 11 is the best. District 9 has the worst overall crime rate (highlighted in orange) in all three years examined, with a crime rate double or more than that of the next worse district.
| Table 5 – Comparison of Total Crime Rates by Denver Council Districts 1–11 | ||||||
| 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | ||||
| Rank | Crime Rate per 1,000 | District | Crime Rate per 1,000 | District | Crime Rate per 1,000 | District |
| 1 | 214.30 | 9 | 181.46 | 9 | 246.31 | 9 |
| 2 | 122.01 | 7 | 123.28 | 10 | 129.90 | 10 |
| 3 | 117.06 | 10 | 98.59 | 7 | 123.81 | 8 |
| 4 | 106.12 | 3 | 94.51 | 3 | 117.79 | 7 |
| 5 | 86.30 | 8 | 84.76 | 8 | 102.43 | 3 |
| 6 | 81.09 | 1 | 76.44 | 1 | 100.43 | 11 |
| 7 | 70.12 | 5 | 63.71 | 5 | 93.19 | 1 |
| 8 | 49.31 | 11 | 57.15 | 4 | 90.63 | 5 |
| 9 | 46.30 | 4 | 52.34 | 11 | 81.99 | 4 |
| 10 | 43.99 | 6 | 39.67 | 6 | 56.65 | 6 |
| 11 | 33.67 | 2 | 32.59 | 2 | 34.43 | 2 |
| Average | 88.21 | 82.23 | 107.5 | |||
| Source: Denver Police Department Open Data Catalog | ||||||
Table 6 presents the number of crime incidents in each district over the four-year periods 2014 – 2018 and 2018 – 2022. District 9 has the greatest number of incidents crime rate, and it is nearly double the next highest number of incidents in District 7. Since each district has approximately the same population (65,000), converting these number of incidents to a crime rate would show that District 9 has a crime rate twice the average for all districts. District 9 has 9.09% of the population in Denver yet has 20.4% of all incidents in 2022. This equates to 44 incidents per day in District 9.
| Table 6 – Total Incidents by Denver Council Districts 1–11 | ||||||
| Year | Percent Change | |||||
| District | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014-2018 | 2018-2022 | |
| 1 | 4,917 | 5,020 | 6,286 | 2.1% | 25.2% | |
| 2 | 2,090 | 2,192 | 2,378 | 4.8% | 8.5% | |
| 3 | 6,310 | 6,087 | 6,776 | -3.5% | 11.3% | |
| 4 | 2,950 | 3,459 | 5,812 | 17.3% | 68.0% | |
| 5 | 4,360 | 4,291 | 6,269 | -1.6% | 46.1% | |
| 6 | 2,793 | 2,728 | 4,001 | -2.3% | 46.7% | |
| 7 | 7,131 | 6,242 | 7,659 | -12.5% | 22.7% | |
| 8 | 5,041 | 5,364 | 8,047 | 6.4% | 50.0% | |
| 9 | 12,503 | 11,468 | 15,987 | -8.3% | 39.4% | |
| 10 | 6,784 | 7,739 | 8,375 | 14.1% | 8.2% | |
| 11 | 2,991 | 3,439 | 6,777 | 15.0% | 97.0% | |
| District Avg. | 5,261 | 5,275 | 7,124 | 0.3% | 35.0% | |
| Source: Denver Police Department Open Data Catalog | ||||||
Table 7 shows the rank of each City Council district relative to all 11 City Council districts in Denver for total number of incidents. A rank of 1 is the worst (most incidents) and 11 is the best (least number of incidents). District 9 is consistently and overwhelmingly the worst district for the number of incidents followed by District 10. District 2 is consistently the best in that it has the lowest number of incidents.
| Table 7 – Comparison of Total Incidents in Denver Council Districts 1–11 | ||||||
| 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | ||||
| Rank | Number of Incidents | District number | Number of Incidents | District number | Number of Incidents | District number |
| 1 | 12,503 | 9 | 11,468 | 9 | 15,987 | 9 |
| 2 | 7,131 | 7 | 7,739 | 10 | 8,375 | 10 |
| 3 | 6,784 | 10 | 6,242 | 7 | 8,047 | 8 |
| 4 | 6,310 | 3 | 6,087 | 3 | 7,659 | 7 |
| 5 | 5,041 | 8 | 5,364 | 8 | 6,777 | 11 |
| 6 | 4,917 | 1 | 5,020 | 1 | 6,776 | 3 |
| 7 | 4,360 | 5 | 4,291 | 5 | 6,286 | 1 |
| 8 | 2,991 | 11 | 3,459 | 4 | 6,269 | 5 |
| 9 | 2,950 | 4 | 3,439 | 11 | 5,812 | 4 |
| 10 | 2,793 | 6 | 2,728 | 6 | 4,001 | 6 |
| 11 | 2,090 | 2 | 2,192 | 2 | 2,378 | 2 |
| Total | 57,869 | 58,029 | 78,365 | |||
| Source: Denver Police Department Open Data Catalog | ||||||
Individual District and Neighborhood Level Data
CSI complied data on all 11 districts and their neighborhoods. In the following tables the overall crime rate for the district is provided, then the number of incidents for the district, and finally the number of incidents in each neighborhood associated with the district. Figure 7 shows the location of each district with neighborhoods. This map is from 2015 and was in place until 2023.
2023 Local Elections
In 2023, Coloradans will have municipal elections in our most populated cities. To inform these debates CSI will produce reports on the most pressing issues facing Colorado cities: crime, housing, and homelessness for Fort Collins, Denver, Grand Junction, Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Aurora.
About Common Sense Institute
Common Sense Institute
is a non-partisan research organization dedicated to the protection and promotion of Colorado’s and Arizona’s economy. CSI is at the forefront of important discussions concerning the future of free enterprise in Colorado and aims to have an impact on the issues that matter most to Coloradans and Arizonans. CSI’s mission is to examine the fiscal impacts of policies, initiatives, and proposed laws so that Coloradans and Arizonans are educated and informed on issues impacting their lives. CSI employs rigorous research techniques and dynamic modeling to evaluate the potential impact of these measures on the Colorado and Arizona economy and individual opportunity.
Teams & Fellows Statement
CSI is committed to independent, in-depth research that examines the impacts of policies, initiatives, and proposed laws so that Coloradans and Arizonans are educated and informed on issues impacting their lives. CSI’s commitment to institutional independence is rooted in the individual independence of our researchers, economists, and fellows. At the core of CSI’s mission is a belief in the power of the free enterprise system. Our work explores ideas that protect and promote jobs and the economy, and the CSI team and fellows take part in this pursuit with academic freedom. Our team’s work is driven by data-driven research and evidence. The views and opinions of fellows do not reflect institutional views of CSI. CSI operates independently of any political party and does not take positions.
Introduction and Key Findings
This report looks at the current state of crime in Denver through the lens of publicly available data on the level of crime and crime rates. We used data on neighborhoods made available by the Denver Police Department to study crime at the individual neighborhood level and at the City Council District level.
Crime rates in Denver continue to top pre-pandemic levels. In 2022, Denver’s average monthly crime rate was
43% higher
than in 2019, and
75% higher
than in 2008. The average monthly crime rate for motor vehicle theft is 172 incidents per 100,000 residents,
an increase of 293%
compared to 2014, the year that the state passed statutory reductions to motor vehicle penalties.
Compared to other cities in the U.S. with populations over 100,000, Denver ranks third in motor vehicle theft crime rate and sixth in property crime rates, and 10th in rape crime rates.
Relative to other major Colorado cities, Denver is ranked first in motor vehicle thefts and first in property crime.
Concurrent with Denver’s rising crime rates, one would expect a corresponding rise in arrests, convictions, and incarceration for the sake of public safety and justice for victims. Further analysis is warranted to determine how the criminal justice system is responding. The findings in this report show that Denver faces a growing crime problem and addressing it should be a top priority.
Report Key Findings
Denver ranks in the top 10 U.S. cities for crime
- Denver ranks in the top 10 U.S. cities for crime, including: 3rd motor vehicle theft; 6th property crime rate; 10th rape crime rate.
- Approximately 14,980 vehicles were stolen in Denver in 2022. That is equal to nearly every car being stolen from all parking lots surrounding Empower Field during 3 Broncos home games.
While all districts in Denver face challenges, crime is overwhelming in District 9
-
- The number of crime incidences in District 9 (15,987) is 91% higher than the second worst district and more than double the level in the 8 other districts.
- District 9 has a crime rate twice the average for all districts.
- District 9 has 9.09% of the population in Denver yet has 20.4% of all incidents in 2022. This equates to roughly 44 incidents (nearly 50) per day in District 9.
Neighborhoods to Watch
- In 2022, District 9 neighborhoods, including CBD, Five Points, and Union Station, occupied 3 of the top 5 worst neighborhoods by number of crimes.
- The worst neighborhood by the number of crimes, was 4,549 in Five Points.
- In District 9, incidents of crime have increased nearly 40% from 11,468 in 2018 to 15,987 in 2022.
- The neighborhood with the least number of crimes and ranked best in Denver is Wellshire.
- District 2 had the lowest number of incidents, including Harvey Park, Bear Valley, and Marston.
Average Monthly Crimes Rates in Denver
The data in this section comes from Colorado Crime Statistics.
Figure 1
shows the evolution of the average monthly crime rate in Denver and Colorado since 2008. The average monthly crime rate in Denver has risen by 75% from 5.14 per 1,000 residents in 2018 to 9.01 in 2022. As of 2022, Denver’s crime rate is 58% higher than the Colorado average. Historically, Denver’s crime rate has been only about 28% higher than the state average.
Figure 1 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 Residents in Denver and Colorado
Table 1
shows the average monthly crime rate in 2014, 2018, and 2022, as well as change from 2014 to 2018 and 2014 to 2018 by major crime categories. Crimes against persons rose 22.3% from 2018 to 2022, a seven-fold increase over the period 2014 to 2018. Crimes against property rose 59.5% from 2018 to 2022, a nine-fold increase over the period 2014 to 2018. Crimes against society decreased 10% from 2018 to 2022, after increasing 34% from 2014 to 2018.
Some of the larger increases occurred in aggravated assault, increasing 60.2% from 2018 to 2022, motor vehicle theft rose 176% from 2018 to 2022, more than four times the change from 2014 to 2018.
| Table 1 – Denver Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 residents | |||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | ||||
| Average Monthly Crime Rate | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014-2018 | 2018-2022 |
| Crimes against Person | 1.26 | 1.30 | 1.59 | 3.2% | 22.3% |
| Crimes against Property | 3.97 | 4.23 | 6.75 | 6.6% | 59.5% |
| Crimes against Society | 0.57 | 0.76 | 0.68 | 34.0% | -10.0% |
| Sexual Assault | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 26.3% | -5.2% |
| Murder | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 266.7% | 0.0% |
| Robbery | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 3.0% | 4.1% |
| Aggravated Assault | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.62 | 25.5% | 60.2% |
| Arson | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -23.8% | 62.5% |
| Burglary | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.58 | -19.0% | 24.0% |
| Larceny | 2.45 | 2.51 | 3.46 | 2.3% | 38.1% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicles | 0.49 | 0.61 | 0.96 | 26.2% | 57.2% |
| Auto Theft | 0.44 | 0.62 | 1.72 | 42.1% | 176.0% |
| Total | 5.79 | 6.29 | 9.02 | 8.5% | 43.5% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Statistics | |||||
Figure 2
shows the evolution of average monthly crimes against a person for Denver relative to Colorado. Denver’s average monthly crime for crimes against a person has consistently been higher than Colorado and is continuing to diverge away from Colorado at a higher rate in each year since 2012.
Figure 2 – Crimes Against Persons: Average Monthly Crime Rates
Figure 3
shows the evolution of average monthly crimes against property relative to Colorado. Denver’s average monthly crime rate against property has been consistently higher than Colorado’s average and tracks fairly close.
Figure 3 – Crimes Against Property: Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 in Denver and Colorado
Figure 4
shows the average monthly crime rate against society relative to Colorado. Denver’s average monthly crime rate against society does not appear to be positively correlated with Colorado’s.
Figure 4 – Crimes Against Society: Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 in Denver and Colorado
Figure 5
shows Denver’s average monthly crime rate for crimes against persons, property, society, and total from 2008 to 2022. Clearly, the large increase in crimes against property account for the majority of the change in the total average monthly crime rate.
Figure 5 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 1,000 in Denver
Crime in Denver Relative to Other Large U.S. Cities
Using the latest report from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) for the third quarter of 2022, CSI converted the number of crimes to crime rates based on population for each reporting city. 168 cities reported to the UCR in Q3 2021 and 188 reported in Q3 2022. Highlighted in Table 2 is Denver’s rankings across several major crime categories. Denver ranks 3rd in motor vehicle thefts in the nation and ranks 6th for property crime in 2021 and 2022 out of nationwide surveyed cities.
Using the latest report from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) for the third quarter of 2022, CSI converted the number of crimes to crime rates based on population for each reporting city. 168 cities reported to the UCR in Q3 2021 and 188 reported in Q3 2022. Highlighted in Table 2 is Denver’s rankings across several major crime categories. Denver ranks 3rd in motor vehicle thefts in the nation and ranks 6th for property crime in 2021 and 2022 out of nationwide surveyed cities.
| Table 2 – 2021 and 2022 FBI 3rd Quarter Denver Crime Rates Ranked among Reporting Cities[i] | ||||||||||||
| Year | Violent Crime | Murder | Rape | Robbery | Aggravated Assault | Property Crime | Burglary | Larceny/Theft | Motor Vehicle Theft | Arson | ||
| Denver | 2021 | 34 | 38 | 20 | 28 | 36 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 2 | 42 | |
| 2022 | 25 | 46 | 10 | 29 | 29 | 6 | 22 | 13 | 3 | 36 | ||
| Quarterly Uniform Crime Report data for the nation are derived from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) reports voluntarily submitted to the FBI. The FBI Quarterly Uniform Crime Report data release for Quarter 3, January – September 2022, was made available on November 28, 2022. This report is based on data received from 12,104 of 18,964 law enforcement agencies in the country. The Quarter 3 release presents the number of violent and property crime offenses known to law enforcement for agencies with resident populations of 100,000 or more that also provided data from the previous year. | ||||||||||||
Crime in Denver City Council Districts
Denver City Council Districts are defined geographically so that each of the eleven districts has approximately an equal population. As such, some neighborhoods or parts of a neighborhood can and do shift districts. In this study, the neighborhood designations are kept constant for all years so that the number of incidents and crime rates are comparable. Table 3 shows the annual crime rate for all districts in Denver based on data from Colorado Crime Statistics. Total crime rates increased 8.6% from 2014 to 2018, and increased 43.5% from 2018 to 2022, more than a five-fold increase.
| Table 3 – Change in Annual Crime Rates, Denver – Districts 1-11 | |||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | ||||
| Offense Category | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014-2018 | 2018-2022 |
| Crimes against Person | 15.1 | 15.6 | 19.08 | 3.2% | 22.5% |
| Crimes against Property | 47.6 | 50.8 | 80.95 | 6.6% | 59.5% |
| Crimes against Society | 6.77 | 9.1 | 8.18 | 34.4% | -10.1% |
| Drug/Narcotics Violations | 4.08 | 5.26 | 2.93 | 28.9% | -44.3% |
| Non-consensual Sex Offenses | 1.38 | 1.72 | 1.65 | 24.6% | -4.1% |
| Murder | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 80.0% | 33.3% |
| Aggravated Assault | 3.68 | 4.6 | 7.38 | 25.0% | 60.4% |
| Non-consensual Sex Offenses | 1.38 | 1.72 | 1.65 | 24.6% | -4.1% |
| Robbery | 1.65 | 1.69 | 1.76 | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| Burglary/Breaking & Entering | 6.9 | 5.59 | 6.92 | -19.0% | 23.8% |
| Arson | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.26 | -23.8% | 62.5% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicles | 5.84 | 7.36 | 11.58 | 26.0% | 57.3% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 5.24 | 7.47 | 20.58 | 42.6% | 175.5% |
| Total | 69.5 | 75.4 | 108.2 | 8.6% | 43.5% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Statistics | |||||
In Table 4, crime rates for categories of crime collected by the Denver Police Department are shown. These are the categories of crime that are used to evaluate trends in crime in each district and to compare Denver’s eleven City Council Districts to one another. Based on this data, total crime rate decreased by 7.4% from 2014 – 2018, but then reversed course by rising 31.5% from 2018 to 2022.
| Table 4 – Change in Annual Crime Rates, Denver – Districts 1 -11 | |||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | ||||
| Offense Category | 2014 | 2018 | 2022 | 2014 -2018 | 2018 -2022 |
| Public Disorder | 15.43 | 10.82 | 16.65 | -29.9% | 53.9% |
| Drug/Alcohol | 9.29 | 8.20 | 4.39 | -11.7% | -46.5% |
| Sexual Assault | 0.97 | 1.13 | 0.97 | 16.2% | -14.1% |
| Other Crimes against Persons | 6.73 | 4.49 | 5.54 | -33.4% | 23.5% |
| All Other Crimes | 14.23 | 12.45 | 10.48 | -12.5% | -15.8% |
| White-collar Crime | 1.63 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 7.9% | -16.5% |
| Murder | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 71.4% | 42.1% |
| Robbery | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.71 | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| Aggravated Assault | 2.80 | 3.17 | 4.98 | 13.1% | 57.4% |
| Arson | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.24 | -20.4% | 53.2% |
| Burglary | 6.89 | 5.61 | 6.80 | -18.5% | 21.2% |
| Larceny | 14.13 | 12.43 | 13.58 | -12.0% | 9.2% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicle | 7.69 | 11.20 | 18.86 | 45.6% | 68.4% |
| Auto Theft | 5.30 | 7.38 | 20.09 | 39.3% | 172.3% |
| Total | 88.21 | 82.23 | 107.05 | -7.4% | 31.5% |
| Source: Denver Police Department Open Data Catalog | |||||
District Comparison of Number of Incidents
Total crime incidents have continued to increase dramatically in all districts apart from District 2.
Figure 6
shows the situation is most dire in District 9, where the number of incidents has risen from 11,468 in 2018 to 15,987 in 2022, a 38.4% increase.
Figure 6 – Incidents of Crime in Denver’s City Council Districts