October 28, 2024

Oregon’s Migration Landscape: Evolving Patterns and New Challenges 

Recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate significant shifts in Oregon’s migration patterns, altering its long-standing net gains of both domestic and international migrants. Historically, Oregon consistently ranked within the top 20 states for population growth from net migration. However, since 2020, the state has witnessed profound changes in its demographic dynamics. Although migrants continue to be drawn to the state, some residents are leaving and the birth rate has been very low, leading to small population losses. The last time Oregon saw its population decline was in the early 1980’s when wood product mills closed across the state. The current environment is much different, with the job market healthy in most regions.

According to the latest Census figures, between 2022 and 2023, Oregon’s population experienced a decline of approximately 6,000 individuals, equating to a 0.14% decrease within a single year. This reduction is primarily attributed to a diminishing natural growth rate—defined as the number of births minus the number of deaths—coupled with net outflows in domestic migration, where the number of residents leaving the state surpasses those arriving. Oregon’s birth rate ranks in the bottom five across states and saw a spike in population outflows during 2022. Although these outflows came back to earth in 2023, net migration remained slightly negative.

Although international migration has provided some counterbalance to the decline in natural growth, its impact was not as substantial in 2023 as in the previous year. In terms of the net migration rate, which combines both international and domestic flows, Oregon ranked 45th among all states and Washington D.C. in 2023. This ranking underscores a concerning trend: for the second consecutive year, Oregon recorded negative net migration, indicating more people are leaving the state than arriving. This decline highlights the growing challenge Oregon faces in maintaining population stability and addressing factors driving outmigration.

Key Findings: 

• Oregon’s peak migration rank was 2nd in 2016, but by 2023, it had fallen dramatically to 45th, marking a significant outflow of residents. Many moved to less expensive areas in other states. This shift represents a sharp decline from its earlier standing as one of the top states attracting movers.
•  The number of households earning over $200,000 has grown significantly over the last decade, although the share of these households dipped in 2021 and 2022.
• The working age groups (25-44 years old) in Oregon have shown volatile migration patterns, with a long period of positive net migration followed by sharp increase in outmigration around 2020, stabilizing again by 2023.
• Oregon experienced a net population decrease of about 6,000 people from 2022 to 2023, largely due to reduced natural growth, increased domestic outmigration, and insufficient gains from international migration to offset these losses.
• California and Washington are the main sources of domestic incoming migrants, while the top destinations for residents leaving Oregon are Washington, California, Arizona, Texas, and Idaho.
• Despite a downturn in domestic net migration, international migration showed some recovery post-pandemic, but it was insufficient to offset the overall migration losses.
• Oregon’s declining net migration contrasts with neighbouring states like Washington, Idaho, and Nevada, which have maintained or improved their gains. Idaho and Nevada have retained their affordability advantages, and most of the gains in Washington have come in low-cost rural areas.

Detailed Migration Flows to and from Oregon

In 2023, approximately 125,246 individuals moved to Oregon, while 131,403 residents left, indicating a net migration loss.

Incoming Migration (Inflow):

The primary sources of incoming migrants are neighboring states, with California leading at 33,807 and Washington following with 22,169. Arizona, which contributed 7,144 new residents, represents another significant origin of new Oregonians. The close proximity and possibly similar economic opportunities or lifestyle preferences likely influence these migration patterns. The rate of inflows into Oregon has remained relatively stable   in recent years.  Recent data on  out-of-state driver’s licenses surrendered suggest that  healthy inflows continued into 2024.